Exit polls show BJP sweeping four states; should we expect Modi in 2014?

The common factor in all poll bound states was Narendra Modi. If BJP wins, it should be called a result of Modi’s soaring popularity.

With Delhi assembly elections ending on Wednesday, polling in the five poll bound states ended. The voter turnout in all the sates this time was a record high. It was recorded as 66 per cent in Delhi, 71 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, 75 per cent in Chhattisgarh, 75.2 per cent in Rajasthan and 81.2 per cent in Mizoram by the Election Commission.

Although the political parties are looking at high voter turnout from different angles, the credit for this high percentage of voting must go the EC. Efficient clean-up of electoral rolls in poll-bound states automatically pushes up voting figures by a few percentage points. Also, the manner in which EC carried out the awareness campaign with the use of modern tools was commendable.

While the EC was heaving a sigh of relief for the overall peaceful elections in all the five states, the media channels were busy coming out with the exit poll results. There have already been various surveys which predicted the mood of the public.

A number of exit polls showed Bhartiya Janata Party winning in four out of five states. The overall numbers showed BJP retaining Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh, returning in Rajasthan and making it to the top in Delhi too.

According to the exit polls, BJP is set to get 34 seats in Delhi with Aam Aadmi Party registering victories in 13 constituencies. The Congress has been tipped to win 20 seats. In Rajasthan, the party is pegged to win 130 seats while Congress is set lose power with just 48 seats. Beating anti-incumbency, the BJP is likely to get 144 seats in Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress will manage to win 77 seats. In Naxal infested Chhattisgarh, the BJP is likely to get 50 seats while the Congress will continue to be in opposition with just 37 seats in hand.

The major feat that BJP is likely to achieve has different factors in different states. While in Delhi it seems that AAP’s anti-corruption plank has undoubtedly benefitted it, but it has also helped BJP gain ground in this anti-Congress wave. Sheila Dikshit is said to lose. But other surveys are also predicting a hung assembly because the AAP has clearly indicated towards no alliance with either Congress or BJP.

In Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh, it should be called a victory of the chief ministers – Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh – in the state. In Rajasthan, the return of Vasundhara Raje Scindhia is seen mostly a result of this anti-incumbency sentiment.

But the common factor in all these sates is BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The general public sentiment that he should lead the country is gaining ground. Although, national issues generally do not affect the local or state elections, but the soaring popularity of Narendra Modi may have affected the voting pattern.

Also, the country is yet not able to accept Congress scion Rahul Gandhi as their leader for his lack of experience.

The election in these states, except Mizoram, may be called a mini general election if this BJP victory is the result of Narendra Modi’s popularity and we should expect a similar result in 2014 general elections.

Article Categories:
News Analysis

Don't Miss! random posts ..